Does being nominated for an Academy Award in the Best Picture category mean a movie is among the best of the year? No. Does it even mean it’s good? Not necessarily. Does the academy sometimes make downright absurd decisions that make you question the legitimacy of its opinions? It does, it certainly does. At least the way I see it.
But it’s the same story every year. Just like how the idol beckons Indiana Jones across an arrow-lined deathtrap, the mysterious lure of that golden statuette will once again drag me through the academy’s nonsense. In that spirit, here are my thoughts on the 2025 Best Picture nominees and their chances in this year’s race.
Dune: Part Two
If it were up to me, Dune: Part Two (2024) would be the big winner of the evening.
In the most epic movie since The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003), the transformation of Paul (Timothée Chalamet) to the Lisan al Gaib is chilling, even disturbing at times. Equally so is his mother (Jessica Chastain), willing her son to become the “messiah” of a foreign group of people called the Fremen. The growing sense of dread — despair — Chani (Zendaya) evokes is crucial to that impression. The film is beautifully shot and the action and visual effects are superb. The score is wild, and the sound is big. Sadly, it has no nominations for acting, directing or even adapted screenplay.
This movie has no chance.
Anora
I won’t be upset if Anora (2024) wins. The film follows a young Brooklyn escort who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, but her fairytale crumbles when his family tries to get the marriage annulled. Anora memorably balances comedy and drama, and the biggest reason I wouldn’t mind seeing it win is because of Mikey Madison’s portrayal of the titular character. The story is a bit predictable, but I was always keen to see Anora’s reaction to being dragged around by her husband’s family. It’s only so funny (her husband’s childishness gets annoying) and only so dramatic, but Madison impressively manages to be funny and heartbreaking, often in the same moments.
While some think the ending is gross and nonsensical, I think it’s one of the emotional high points of the film. Amidst the controversies facing Emilia Pérez (2024) and The Brutalist (2024), Anora has proven its resonance with international voters. It won the Palme d’Or last May, and Madison’s crucial win at the BAFTAs (just weeks before the Oscars) leaves Anora well positioned to bring home the night’s biggest award.
This movie will win.
Wicked
This stage-to-screen adaptation of the Wicked Witch of the West’s origin story is enchanting and appeals to both fans of the original show and newcomers. All the songs, characters and plotlines from the first act of the musical are here, and all are brilliantly delivered by the ensemble. The visual effects, CGI and set design enhance the sense of wonder that Oz evokes.
Even viewers who aren’t fans of musicals will be awestruck by Cynthia Erivo’s vocals and are guaranteed a laugh or two during “Popular,” which Ariana Grande (my pick for Best Supporting Actress) is hilarious in. But Wicked (2024) has been following the road to the Oscars and is failing to turn the brick yellow. It also, somehow, has no nominations for direction or adapted screenplay, despite the film being a gargantuan undertaking that massively exceeded expectations.
This movie has no chance.
Emilia Pérez
Emilia Pérez won’t have you “Dancing Through Life,” but it will have you running to turn the TV off. Many in the transgender and Mexican communities were offended by the way the story of a transitioning cartel leader attempting to turn their life around was told. I was offended by nobody in this movie — outside Zoe Saldana — being able to sing. You’ve probably seen a clip from “La Vaginoplastia” by now, and, if you haven’t, consider yourself lucky.
In another unwatchable number, Selena Gomez’s character simply screams at the camera in between techno dance breaks. This movie had some serious juice before the director called Spanish “the language of poor people” and xenophobic tweets from lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced.
This movie has no chance.
Nickel Boys
Most of this movie about two Black boys navigating an abusive reform school in the Jim Crow-era is strong, but it takes a while to get into. The first 40 minutes introduce the main character — there’s not a lot of plot and it’s a bit disengaging. The whole thing was also shot in first person POV, so we barely get to see and truly engage with our main character. That is until he meets Turner (Brandon Wilson) at the Nickel Academy. From then on, the POV transitions back and forth between the two boys, and you really start to care for the characters and their plans to break free from the school’s violence.
Some see the camera work as overly stylized Oscar bait, but I disagree. When told from multiple perspectives, the movie’s uncomfortable scenes become traumatic — I felt more trapped in the scene than I would’ve without the POV switch. Most of its wins so far are for Best Adapted Screenplay, so this one isn’t a contender. Nickel Boys (2024) is worth a watch though, regardless of the slow first act.
This movie has no chance.
A Complete Unknown
Even if you dislike folk or rock music, the story of Bob Dylan’s (Timothée Chalamet) journey to freedom from the shackles of expectation (in this case, the expectation to perform folk music) is one that should appeal to all audiences. It doesn’t take long to forget that Timothée Chalamet is Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown (2024), with his nasally voice and laid-back exterior with unfocused energy brimming under the surface. Edward Norton is likeable and helps the audience empathize with the old guard of folk music, and Monica Barbaro’s voice is soft yet strong. Her scenes on stage are both soothing and tense given her hidden relationship with Dylan. Musical biopics never win the top prize, but Chalamet is picking up steam in the race for Best Actor, so you never know.
This movie has little chance.
Conclave
If you’re a fan of thrillers where most of the movie is devoted to dialogue, then you’ll like this one. I found it thrilling to be let inside the secretive papal selection process, and the mysterious circumstances surrounding the pope’s death were even more intriguing.
In Ken Follett’s book A Column of Fire, it says, “Imperfect men can still fight for a perfect world.” This central message, woven into the fight for the papacy, is enthralling. The problem, for me, is the twist after everything is wrapped up nicely — it feels like a weird afterthought and doesn’t add anything to the story.
I saw someone online say Ralph Fiennes has the same kind of “quiet, troubled intensity” that earned Cillian Murphy his Oscar for Oppenheimer (2023), and I agree. The cinematography is captivating, specifically, the scenes showcasing a wall of red robes against ornate Catholic architecture. However, I think Anora edges it out in the race for Best Picture. Then again, Conclave won the BAFTA for Best Film this year, and those voters clearly didn’t let the film’s ending sour their impression.
This movie could win.
I’m Still Here
The Best Actress award seems like either Mikey Madison or Demi Moore’s to win. While I wouldn’t protest either of them winning it, Fernanda Torres should also be in the discussion.
I’m Still Here (2024) is set in 1970s Brazil during the country’s military dictatorship. Eunice’s (Torres) search for the truth about her husband, while striving to keep her family healthy, is powerful and inspiring. The effect of the ensemble, however, can’t be ignored — the family dynamic feels very easy and realistic, which helped get me into the film. The film’s ability to capture joy despite significant domestic political stress is beautiful. It’s slow, which is somewhat owing to a series of dragged-out shots that force the audience to sit with the characters, but the underlying feeling of anxiety from living in a dictatorship kept me in the film. It also hasn’t won any awards, which often dictate competitiveness in this race.
This movie has no chance.
The Brutalist
Anyone I talk to about The Brutalist (2024) who hasn’t seen it asks the same question: does it justify the runtime? At three-and-a-half hours long, including an intermission, my answer is no. But I’d still recommend it — the technical components of the film kept me engaged even when the story was slow. The acting is incredible and Adrien Brody gives a gut wrenching performance, (even if his Hungarian accent is enhanced by artificial intelligence). Care is put into every frame, and the percussive heavy score works well given very few static shots, as the dynamic cinematography perfectly compliments the intense score.
The movie follows a Hungarian-Jewish Holocaust survivor in 1947, who immigrates to New York to restart his life and ends up working with an American business tycoon to build a community centre. The film explores capitalism and its place in artistic expression, American bigotry, ambition and addiction.
The film can be pretentious, but not due to abstractions — it remains committed to its plot and satisfyingly ties together its themes at the end. It’s a worthy contender for Best Picture, but I think voters will be wary of awarding a film that controversially used AI.
This movie might win.
The Substance
I’m not a big fan of body horror, but I love good stories and good acting. Demi Moore is outstanding as Elisabeth, a fading movie star who resents what time robbed her of. After Elisabeth undergoes a treatment splitting her body in two — her counterpart, Sue (Margaret Qualley), comes to life, but anxiety builds in the film when Sue’s actions increasingly put Elisabeth in danger of morphing beyond recognition. Being horror, it won’t win, but its warning against the dangers of vanity is impactful. It’s expressed in an absurd way, but it doesn’t diminish how deep the message cuts.
Shoutout to the makeup team — I’ll think twice before undergoing any beauty regimens.
This movie has no chance.
Recent Comments